Nguva pfupi yadarika, Bloomberg Businessweek yakaburitsa chinyorwa chakanzi “Kupi “kusina mutyairi” musoro?“Nyaya yacho yakataura kuti nguva yemberi yokutyaira kusina munhu iri kure zvikuru.

Zvikonzero zvakapihwa zvinosanganisira zvinotevera:

“Kutyaira pasina munhu kunodya mari yakawanda uye ruzivo rwokugadzira zvinhu runofambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma;autonomous drivinghakuna zvakachengeteka kupfuura kutyaira kwevanhu;kudzidza kwakadzama hakugone kubata nemakona ese, nezvimwe. "

Mhedzisiro yemubvunzo weBloomberg wekutyaira zvisina munhu ndeyekuti nzvimbo yekumhara yekutyaira isina munhu yakapfuura zvinotarisirwa nevanhu vazhinji..Nekudaro, Bloomberg yakangonyora mamwe matambudziko epamusoro ekutyaira zvisina munhu, asi haana kuenderera mberi, uye akanyatsoratidza chimiro chebudiriro uye tarisiro yeramangwana yekutyaira kusina munhu.

Izvi zviri nyore kurasisa.

Kubvumirana muindasitiri yemotokari ndekwekuti kutyaira uchizvitonga ndeyechisikigo application mamiriro ehungwaru hwekugadzira.Kwete chete Waymo, Baidu, Cruise, nezvimwe zvinobatanidzwa mairi, asi makambani mazhinji emotokari akarongawo hurongwa hwekutyaira wega, uye chinangwa chekupedzisira ndechekutyaira pasina mutyairi.

Semucherechedzi wenguva refu yenzvimbo yekutyaira yakazvimirira, iyo XEV Institute inoona zvinotevera:

• Mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzemumadhorobha muChina, kubhuka Robotaxi kuburikidza nenharembozha kwatove nyore.
• Nekuvandudzwa kwehunyanzvi, mutemo unogara uchivandudzwa.Mamwe maguta akavhura zvakatevedzana nzvimbo dzekuratidzira dzekutengeserana kwekutyaira wega.Pakati pavo, Beijing Yizhuang, Shanghai Jiading neShenzhen Pingshan vave nhandare dzekutyaira dzinozvimiririra.Shenzhen ndiro zvakare guta rekutanga pasirese kuita mutemo weL3 autonomous drive.
• L4's smart driving program yakadzikisa dimensionality uye yakapinda mumusika wemota dzevafambi.
• Iko kusimukira kwekutyaira kusingafambiswi kwakakurudzirawo shanduko mu lidar, simulation, machipisi uye kunyangwe mota yacho pachayo.

Seri kwezviitiko zvakasiyana, kunyangwe paine misiyano mukufambira mberi kwekutyaira kwakazvimirira pakati peChina neUnited States, zvakajairika ndezvekuti pfarivari dzegwara rekutyaira rakazvimiririra riri kuwedzera simba.

1. Bloomberg akabvunza, "kutyaira wega kuchiri kure"

Tanga wanzwisisa mwero.

Zvinoenderana nezviyero zvemaindasitiri eChinese neAmerica, kutyaira zvisina munhu ndekwedanho repamusoro rekutyaira otomatiki, iro rinonzi L5 pasi peAmerican SAE standard uye level 5 pasi peChinese otomatiki dhiraivha level.

Kutyaira kusina munhu ndiye mambo wehurongwa, ODD yakagadzirirwa kushanda muhuwandu husingagumi, uye motokari inozvimiririra zvakakwana.

Tinobva tauya kuchinyorwa cheBloomberg.

Bloomberg yakanyora mibvunzo inopfuura gumi nembiri muchinyorwa kuratidza kuti kutyaira wakazvimirira hakushande.

Aya matambudziko akanyanya:

• Zvakaoma nehunyanzvi kuita kukona kwekuruboshwe kusina kudzivirirwa;
• Mushure mekudyara mabhiriyoni zana emadhora, hapasati pave nemotokari dzinozvifambisa mumugwagwa;
• Chibvumirano muindasitiri ndechekuti mota dzisina mutyairi hadzimirire makumi emakore;
• Iko kukosha kwemusika weWaymo, iyo inotungamirira kambani yekutyaira yemotokari, yakaderera kubva ku $ 170 mabhiriyoni kusvika ku $ 30 mabhiriyoni nhasi;
• Kuvandudzwa kwevatambi vekutanga vanozvityaira ZOOX neUber kwanga kusiri kutsetseka;
• Mwero wetsaona inokonzerwa nekutyaira wakazvimiririra yakakwirira kudarika yekutyaira kwevanhu;
• Hapana seti yemaitiro ekuyedza kuona kana mota dzisingatyairi dzakachengeteka;
• Google(waymo) ikozvino ine mamiriyoni makumi maviri emakiromita e data yekutyaira, asi kuratidza kuti yakakonzera kufa kwevanhu vashoma pane vatyairi vemabhazi vaizoda kuwedzera imwe nguva ye25 daro rekutyaira, izvo zvinoreva kuti Google haigoni kuratidza kuti kutyaira kwakasununguka kuchave kwakachengeteka;
• Makombiyuta ekudzidza kwakadzama maitiro haazivi kubata neakawanda akajairika akasiyana munzira, senjiva mumigwagwa yemuguta;
• Makona ekumucheto, kana makona, haana magumo, uye zvakaoma kuti komputa ibate izvi zvizere.

Matambudziko ari pamusoro anogona kungoiswa muzvikamu zvitatu: tekinoroji haina kunaka, chengetedzo haina kukwana, uye zvakaoma kurarama mubhizinesi.

Kubva kunze kweindastiri, matambudziko aya anogona kureva kuti kutyaira kwakazvimirira kwarasa ramangwana rayo, uye hazvigoneke kuti iwe unoda kukwira mumotokari inozvimiririra muhupenyu hwako.

Mhedziso yakakosha yeBloomberg ndeyekuti kutyaira kwakazvimiririra kuchanetsa kukurumbira kwenguva yakareba.

Muchokwadi, kutanga kwaKurume 2018, mumwe munhu akabvunza paZhihu, "China inogona kusimudzira mota dzisingatyairi mukati memakore gumi?”

Kubva pamubvunzo kusvika nhasi, gore rega rega mumwe munhu anokwira kunopindura mubvunzo.Pamusoro pemamwe mainjiniya esoftware uye anozvimirira ekutyaira anofarira, kune zvakare makambani muindasitiri yemotokari seMomenta neWeimar.Wese munhu akapa mhinduro dzakasiyana siyana, asi kusvika parizvino hapana mhinduro.Vanhu vanogona kupa mhinduro chaiyo yakavakirwa pachokwadi kana kuti mufungo.

Chinhu chimwe icho Bloomberg nevamwe vakapindura veZhihu vakafanana ndechekuti vane hanya zvakanyanya nezvinetso zvetekinoroji nezvimwe zvinhu zvidiki, nokudaro vachiramba maitiro ekusimudzira ekutyaira akazvimirira.

Saka, kutyaira wakazvimirira kungapararira here?

2. Kutyaira kweChina kuzvimiririra kwakachengeteka

Tinoda kujekesa mubvunzo wechipiri weBloomberg kutanga, kuti kutyaira wega kwakachengeteka here .

Nekuti muindasitiri yemotokari, kuchengetedzeka ndicho chipingamupinyi chekutanga, uye kana kutyaira kwakazvimiririra kuri kupinda muindasitiri yemotokari, hapana nzira yekutaura nezvazvo pasina kuchengeteka.

Saka, kutyaira wega kwakachengeteka here?

Pano tinofanira kujekesa kuti kutyaira kwega, sechishandiso chakajairika mumunda wehungwaru hwekugadzira, zvinozotungamira tsaona dzemotokari kubva pakukwira kwayo kusvika pakukura.

Saizvozvo, kufarirwa kwemidziyo mitsva yekufambisa senge ndege uye njanji dzinomhanya kwazvo kunoperekedzwawo netsaona, unova mutengo wekuvandudza tekinoroji.

Nhasi, kutyaira kwakazvimiririra kuri kudzorera mota, uye iyi tekinoroji yekuchinja ichasunungura vatyairi vevanhu, uye izvo zvega zvinonyaradza.

Kusimukira kwesainzi neruzivo rwemichina kuchaunza tsaona, asi hazvirevi kuti chikafu chinoraswa nekuda kwekukachidzwa.Zvatingaite kuita kuti tekinoroji irambe ichivandudza, uye panguva imwecheteyo, tinogona kupa dhata reinishuwarenzi yenjodzi iyi.

Semucherechedzi wenguva refu mumunda wekutyaira akazvimirira, iyo XEV Research Institute yakaona kuti marongero eChina uye nzira dzehunyanzvi (ungwaru hwebhasikoro + kurongeka kwemotokari-mugwagwa) dziri kuisa kiyi yekuchengetedza pakutyaira kwega.

Tichitora Beijing Yizhuang semuenzaniso, kubva kumatakisi ekutanga anozvityaira aine mukuru wekuchengetedza mutyairi mukuru, kusvika kumotokari dzazvino dzisina munhu dzakazvimiririra, mukuru wekuchengetedza chigaro chemutyairi akadzimwa, uye mutyairi mubatanidzwa ane mukuru wekuchengetedza uye mabhureki.Gwaro nderekutyaira wega.Yakaburitswa nhanho nenhanho.

Chikonzero chiri nyore kwazvo.China yagara yakatarisana nevanhu, uye madhipatimendi ehurumende, anove anodzora kutyaira akazvimirira, anongwarira zvakakwana kuti aise kuchengetedzeka kwevanhu munzvimbo yakakosha uye "ruoko kumeno" kuchengetedza vatyairi.Mukuita kwekusimudzira kuvandudzwa kwekutyaira kwega, matunhu ese akasununguka zvishoma nezvishoma uye akafambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pamatanho emutyairi mukuru ane mukuru wekuchengetedza, mutyairi pamwe nemukuru wekuchengetedza, uye pasina mukuru wekuchengetedza mumotokari.

Mumamiriro ezvinhu aya ekutonga, makambani ekutyaira anozvimiririra anofanirwa kutevedzera zvimiro zvekupinda, uye bvunzo yemamiriro ezvinhu ndeyekurongeka kwehukuru kupfuura zvinodiwa rezinesi rekutyaira.Semuyenzaniso, kuti utore rezinesi repamusoro-soro reT4 muyedzo yekutyaira yakazvimirira, mota inoda kupasa 100% ye102 bvunzo dzekuvhara nzvimbo.

Zvinoenderana neiyo chaiyo yekushanda data yenzvimbo dzakawanda dzekuratidzira, chengetedzo yekutyaira yakazvimiririra iri nani kupfuura iyo yekutyaira kwevanhu.Muchiono, kutyaira pasina munhu anozvimirira kunogona kuitwa.Kunyanya, iyo Yizhuang Demonstration Zone yakanyanya kufambira mberi kupfuura United States uye ine chengetedzo kupfuura nhanho yepasirese.

Hatizive kana kutyaira wega muUnited States kwakachengeteka, asi kuChina, kutyaira wega kunovimbiswa .

Mushure mekujekesa nyaya dzekuchengetedza, ngatitarisei mubvunzo wekutanga weBloomberg, tekinoroji yekutyaira inogoneka here?

3. Teknolojia inofambira mberi mumatanho maduku munzvimbo yakadzika yemvura, kunyange iri kure uye pedyo

Kuti uongorore kana tekinoroji yekutyaira inoshanda, zvinoenderana nekuti tekinoroji inoramba ichivandudza here uye kuti inogona kugadzirisa matambudziko ari pachiitiko.

Kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kunotanga kuratidzwa mukushanduka kwechimiro chemotokari dzinozvityaira.

Kubva pakutenga kukuru kwekutanga kweDajielong neLincoln Mkzmota nemakambani anozvityaira akadai seWaymo, uye kudzoreredza kwemashure-kuiswa, kune kubatana nemakambani emotokari pamberi-kurodha kugadzirwa kwakawanda, uye nhasi, Baidu yatanga kugadzira mota dzakatsaurirwa kune yakazvimirira tekisi mamiriro.Chimiro chekupedzisira chemotokari dzisina munhu uye motokari dzinozvifambisa dziri kubuda zvishoma nezvishoma.

Iyo tekinoroji inoratidzwa zvakare kana inogona kugadzirisa matambudziko mune mamwe mamiriro.

Parizvino, kuvandudza tekinoroji yekutyaira yakazvimirira iri kupinda mumvura yakadzika.

Zvinoreva nzvimbo yemvura yakadzikaKunyanya ndiko kuti tekinoroji level inotanga kutarisana nezvimwe zvakaomarara.Zvakadai semigwagwa yemuguta, iyo yekare isina kudzivirirwa kuruboshwe inotendeuka dambudziko, zvichingodaro.Mukuwedzera, pachava nemakona emakona akaoma.

Izvi zvakaparadzira kusava netariro kweindastiri yose, pamwe chete nemhoteredzo yekunze yakaoma, izvo zvakazotungamirira kuchando chikuru.Chiitiko chinomiririra zvakanyanya kusimuka kwevatariri veWaymo uye kushanduka mukukosha.Inopa fungidziro yekuti kutyaira wega kwapinda mugwara.

Kutaura zvazviri, mutambi wepamusoro haana kumira.

Kune njiva uye dzimwe nyaya dzakasimudzwa naBloomberg mune chinyorwa.Saizvozvo,makoni, mhuka, uye macheneko ekuruboshwe akajairika mumigwagwa yemudhorobha muChina, uye mota dzeBaidu dzinozvityaira hadzina dambudziko pakubata zviitiko izvi.

Mhinduro yeBaidu ndeye kushandisa chiono uye lidar fusion algorithms yechokwadi kuzivikanwa pamberi pezvipingamupinyi zvakaderera senge makoni nemhuka diki.Muenzaniso unoshanda ndewekuti kana uchikwira mota yeBaidu inozvityaira, mamwe ma media akasangana nechiitiko chemotokari inozvityaira ichinzvenga mapazi mumugwagwa.

Bloomberg yakataurawo kuti Google yekuzvifambisa mamaira haigone kuratidza kuve yakachengeteka kupfuura vatyairi vevanhu.

Muchokwadi, mhedzisiro yebvunzo yeimwe kesi inomhanya haigone kutsanangura dambudziko, asi chiyero chekushanda uye bvunzo mhinduro dzakakwana kuratidza kugona kwekuita kwekutyaira otomatiki.Parizvino, iyo yakazara mileage yeBaidu Apollo inozvimiririra yekutyaira bvunzo yakapfuura mamirioni makumi matatu nematanhatu emakiromita, uye iyo cumulative order vhoriyamu yadarika miriyoni imwe.Panguva ino, kugona kuburitsa kweApollo kuzvimiririra kutyaira mumigwagwa yakaoma yemudhorobha kunogona kusvika 99.99%.

Mukupindura kupindirana pakati pemapurisa nemapurisa, mota dzeBaidu dzisina munhu dzakashongedzerwawo ne5G cloud driving, iyo inogona kutevera murairo wemapurisa emigwagwa kuburikidza nekutyaira kwakafanana.

Autonomous driving tekinoroji inogara ichivandudza.

Pakupedzisira, kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kunoratidzwawo mukuwedzera kuchengetedzeka .

Waymo akati mune pepa, "Mutyairi wedu weAI anogona kudzivisa 75% yekuputsika uye kuderedza kukuvadzwa kwakakomba ne93%, asi pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu akanaka, muenzaniso wemutyairi wevanhu unogona kungodzivisa 62.5% yekuputsika uye kuderedza 84% vakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya."

Tesla'sNhamba yetsaona yeautopilot iri kudererawo .

Zvinoenderana nemishumo yekuchengetedza yakaziviswa naTesla, mukota yechina ye2018, avhareji tsaona yemumigwagwa yakashumwa kune yega 2.91 miriyoni mamaira inotyairwa panguva yekutyaira-inogonesa Autopilot.Muchikamu chechina cha2021, pakanga paine avhareji yekudhumhana kumwe pamakiromita 4.31 miriyoni inotyairwa mukutyaira kwakagonesa Autopilot.

Izvi zvinoratidza kuti Autopilot system iri kuita nani uye nani.

Kuoma kwehunyanzvi hwetekinoroji kunoona kuti kutyaira kwakazvimiririra hakugone kuwanikwa nehusiku humwe, asi hazvifanirwe kushandisa zviitiko zvidiki kuregeredza maitiro makuru uye nekuimba zvakaipa.

Kutyaira kwanhasi kwega kwega kungasava kwakangwara zvakakwana, asi kutora matanho madiki kuri kure.

4. Kutyaira kusingatungamirirwi kunogona kuitika, uye pfarivari pakupedzisira dzichatanga mwoto mumusango

Chekupedzisira, nharo yechinyorwa cheBloomberg yekuti mushure mekupisa $100 bhiriyoni ichanonoka, uye kutyaira kwakazvimirira kunotora makumi emakore.

Tekinoroji inogadzirisa matambudziko kubva pa0 kusvika ku1.Mabhizinesi anogadzirisa matambudziko kubva pa1 kusvika ku10 kusvika ku100.Kutengesa kunogonawo kunzwisiswa semoto.

Isu takaona kuti nepo vatambi vanotungamira vachigara vachidzokorora matekinoroji avo, ivo vari kuongorora mashandiro ekutengesa.

Parizvino, nzvimbo yakakosha yekumhara yekutyaira isina munhu iRobotaxi.Pamusoro pekubvisa mapurisa nekuchengetedza mutengo wevatyairi vevanhu, makambani anozvityaira ari kudzikisawo mutengo wemotokari.

Baidu Apollo, iyo iri pamberi, yakaramba ichideredza mutengo wemotokari dzisina munhu kusvikira yabudisa motokari isingadhuri isina munhu RT6 gore rino, uye mutengo wakaderera kubva pa480,000 yuan muchizvarwa chakapfuura kusvika ku250,000 yuan ikozvino.

Chinangwa ndechekupinda mumusika wekufamba, kukanganisa bhizinesi modhi yematekisi uye online mota-kurovera.

Muchokwadi, matekisi uye epamhepo-kumisa mota masevhisi anoshandira vashandisi veC-kuguma kune imwe mugumo, uye vatyairi vanotsigira, makambani ematekisi uye mapuratifomu kune imwe mugumo, iyo yakasimbiswa semuenzaniso webhizinesi unoshanda.Kubva pamaonero emakwikwi ebhizinesi, kana mutengo weRobotaxi, usingade vatyairi, wakadzikira zvakakwana, wakachengeteka zvakakwana, uye chiyero chakakura zvakakwana, musika wayo wekutyaira wakasimba kupfuura iwo wetekisi uye online mota-kurovera.

Waymo ari kuitawo zvakafanana.Pakupera kwa2021, yakasvika mukubatana neJi Krypton, iyo ichagadzira ngarava isina mutyairi kupa mota dzakasarudzika.

Dzimwe nzira dzekutengesa dziri kubudawo, uye vamwe vatambi vanotungamira vari kushanda pamwe nemakambani emotokari.

Tichitora Baidu semuenzaniso, zvigadzirwa zvayo zveAVP zvekuzvimisa-zvakagadzirwa uye zvakaunzwa muWM Motor W6, Great Wall.Haval, GAC Egypt chengetedzo modhi, uye Pilot Assisted Driving ANP zvigadzirwa zvakaunzwa kuWM Motor mukupera kwaChikumi gore rino.

Kubva muchikamu chekutanga chegore rino, Baidu Apollo kutengesa kwese kwakapfuura mabhiriyoni gumi eyuan, uye Baidu akaburitsa pachena kuti kukura uku kwainyanya kufambiswa nepombi yekutengesa yevagadziri vemotokari hombe.

Kuderedza mitengo, kupinda muchikamu chekushanda kwekutengesa, kana kuderedza chiyero uye kushandira pamwe nemakambani emotokari, idzi ndidzo hwaro hwekutyaira kusina munhu.

Mune dzidziso, ani nani anogona kucheka mutengo nekukurumidza anogona kuunza Robotaxi mumusika.Tichitarisa kubva pakuongorora kwevatambi vanotungamira vakaita saBaidu Apollo, izvi zvine kumwe kutengeserana kugona.

KuChina, makambani etekinoroji haasi kutamba mutambo wemurume mumwechete panzira isingatyairi, uye mitemo iri kuvaperekedza zvizere.

Kuzvimiririra kutyaira nzvimbo dzekuyedza mumaguta ekutanga seBeijing, Shanghai neGuangzhou akatotanga mashandiro.

Maguta emukati akadai seChongqing, Wuhan, neHebei arikushingairira kuendesa nzvimbo dzakazvimirira dzekuyedza kutyaira.Nekuti ivo vari muhwindo remakwikwi emaindasitiri, aya maguta ari mukati menyika haasi mashoma pane ekutanga-tier maguta maererano nekusimba kwemitemo uye hunyanzvi.

Gwaro iri rakatorawo danho rakakosha semutemo weShenzhen weL3, zvichingodaro, izvo zvinoburitsa mhosva dzetsaona dzemumigwagwa pamatanho akasiyana.

Kuziva kwemushandisi uye kugamuchirwa kwekutyaira wega kuri kuwedzera.Zvichienderana neizvi, kugamuchirwa kwe otomatiki kunobatsira kutyaira kuri kuwedzera, uye makambani emotokari eChinese ari kupawo vashandisi basa remudhorobha rinobatsira kutyaira.

Zvose zviri pamusoro zvinobatsira pakuparidzirwa kwekutyaira kusina munhu.

Sezvo Dhipatimendi reDziviriro reUS rakatanga chirongwa cheALV land automatic cruise muna 1983, uye kubva ipapo, Google, Baidu, Cruise, Uber, Tesla, nezvimwewo vakabata njanji.Nhasi, kunyange zvazvo motokari dzisina munhu dzichigere kufarirwa zvakafara, kutyaira kwakasununguka kuri munzira.Nhanho nhanho kuenda kune yekupedzisira shanduko yekutyaira isina munhu.

Vari munzira, guta guru rinozivikanwa rakaungana pano.

Parizvino, zvakakwana kuti kune makambani ekutengesa anoda kuyedza uye vanoisa mari vanoitsigira munzira.

Iyo sevhisi inoshanda nemazvo inzira yekufamba kwevanhu, uye kana ikatadza, inongosiya.Kutora nhanho kumashure, chero shanduko yeruzivo rwevanhu inoda kuti mapiyona aedze.Iye zvino mamwe makambani ekutengesa anozvimiririra anoda kushandisa tekinoroji kuchinja nyika, chatinogona kuita kupa nguva yakati wandei.

Iwe unogona kunge uchibvunza, zvichatora nguva yakadii kuti kutyaira kwakazvimirira kusvike?

Hatikwanise kupa pfungwa chaiyo munguva.

Nekudaro, kune mamwe marepoti aripo ekutarisa.

Muna Chikumi gore rino, KPMG yakaburitsa chirevo che "2021 Global Auto Industry Executive Survey", inoratidza kuti 64% yevatungamiriri vanotenda kuti motokari dzinozvityaira dzinozvitakura uye dzinotakura vanhu dzichatengeswa mumaguta makuru eChina panosvika 2030.

Kunyanya, panosvika 2025, kutyaira kwepamusoro-soro kuchave kutengeswa mumamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo, uye kutengeswa kwemotokari dzakashongedzerwa nechikamu kana chirevo chekuzvimirira kutyaira kuchaverengera inopfuura makumi mashanu muzana yehuwandu hwemotokari dzinotengeswa;panosvika 2030, kutyaira kwepamusoro-soro kunozvimiririra kuchava mukati Inoshandiswa zvakanyanya mumigwagwa mikuru uye pamwero mukuru mune dzimwe migwagwa yemuguta;panosvika 2035, kutyaira kwepamusoro-soro kuchashandiswa zvakanyanya munzvimbo zhinji dzeChina.

Kazhinji, kuvandudzwa kwekutyaira zvisina munhu hakuna tariro sezviri muchinyorwa cheBloomberg.Isu tine chido chekutenda kuti maspark anozopedzisira atanga moto wemusango, uye tekinoroji inozopedzisira yachinja nyika.